Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs tao toma (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold tao toma (63%) · tao toma at 68¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 6

QUINTESSÊNCIA33¢tao toma67¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

tao toma

Consensus Traders

tao toma 63%

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

$472.65

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 67.5¢

-17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutraltao toma at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

tao toma

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

QUINTESSÊNCIA33%

tao toma68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

tao toma5 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares23,272

Combined PnL+$524.27

QUINTESSÊNCIA3 traders

Total Value$184.89

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$51.62

tao toma — 63%QUINTESSÊNCIA — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on tao toma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on QUINTESSÊNCIA) and the top 1000 (5 on tao toma) disagree here.

whaletao toma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrQUINTESSÊNCIA 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedQUINTESSÊNCIA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000tao toma 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	tao tomaavg 82.1¢	$18.1K	$18.6K	+$616.61	55% 239-197 (436)
BI BillBenter2026	tao tomaavg 72.2¢	$598.43	$551.5	-$46.93	57% 19387-14351 (33738)
38 38791873984189	tao tomaavg 83.6¢	$654.66	$216.66	-$45.71	48% 61881-66739 (128620)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 15¢	$90	$78	-$12	51% 1985-1918 (3903)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 28.8¢	$48.47	$54.63	+$6.16	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
VeryLucky888CTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 23.2¢	$110.61	$52.26	-$45.78	58% 47061-33943 (81004)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	tao tomaavg 67.8¢	$24.97	$24.88	-$0.09	42% 8075-11277 (19352)
FL Flaznorp<$100	tao tomaavg 64.2¢	$1.28	$1.68	+$0.4	51% 26324-24949 (51273)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

tao toma

Invested

$18,130.61

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$616.61

Record

55%

239-197 (436)

BillBenter2026

tao toma

Invested

$598.43

Value

$551.5

PnL

-$46.93

Record

57%

19387-14351 (33738)

38791873984189

tao toma

Invested

$654.66

Value

$216.66

PnL

-$45.71

Record

48%

61881-66739 (128620)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$90

Value

$78

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

1985-1918 (3903)

cigarettesCTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$48.47

Value

$54.63

PnL

+$6.16

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

VeryLucky888CTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$110.61

Value

$52.26

PnL

-$45.78

Record

58%

47061-33943 (81004)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

tao toma

Invested

$24.97

Value

$24.88

PnL

-$0.09

Record

42%

8075-11277 (19352)

Flaznorp<$100

tao toma

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

26324-24949 (51273)

Research grade

Neutraltao toma at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

tao toma

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on tao toma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on QUINTESSÊNCIA) and the top 1000 (5 on tao toma) disagree here.

whaletao toma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrQUINTESSÊNCIA 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedQUINTESSÊNCIA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000tao toma 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that tao toma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.