Consensus PnL $42K · win rate 65% (6132–3326, n=9458) · was PM monthly #953 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$42.4K
Record
6132W / 3326L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 9458 settled
Batting Avg
37.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#916
Source
PM monthly #953 + pinned
Trades
685,838
Markets
33,412
Volume
$37.0M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 23 on the consensus side (52%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $783 · now 56¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- Villa Maria: Rocco Valente vs Ryo TabataRyo Tabata $126 · now 62¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis KlokDenis Klok $64 · now 60¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?Yes $52 · now 22¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $49 · now 87¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (68% of 28)
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-01?No $40 · now 36¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $40 · now 60¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (50% of 21)
- Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?Yes $39 · now 21¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
4,543 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 72¢- NHL
+31 pts
side won 100% of 36 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +34%
- College Football
+25 pts
side won 100% of 69 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +29%
- MLB
+22 pts
side won 92% of 253 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +21%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 54% of 156 at an average 55¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 23% of 204)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 45% of 399)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 84% of 1142)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 99% of 2798)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.