Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold QUINTESSÊNCIA (50%) · QUINTESSÊNCIA at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
QUINTESSÊNCIA
6
QUINTESSÊNCIA 50%
$2.7K
-$168.26
74.2¢ → 85.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralQUINTESSÊNCIA at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 74.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$217.54 | 54% 134-113 (247) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 75¢ | $159.99 | $175.04 | +$15.05 | 67% 56-28 (84) |
 alpheclabs2CTR | underw0rldavg 28¢ | $136.92 | $158.93 | +$22.01 | 45% 114-137 (251) |
CI cigarettesCTR | underw0rldavg 29¢ | $101.5 | $113.75 | +$12.25 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 77.9¢ | $7.65 | $7.66 | +$0.01 | 51% 1833-1787 (3620) |
31 319113331313111CTR<$100 | underw0rldavg 19¢ | $1.14 | $1.11 | -$0.03 | 52% 64-60 (124) |
Invested
$2,440.25
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$217.54
Record
54%
134-113 (247)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$159.99
Value
$175.04
PnL
+$15.05
Record
67%
56-28 (84)
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$136.92
Value
$158.93
PnL
+$22.01
Record
45%
114-137 (251)
Invested
$101.5
Value
$113.75
PnL
+$12.25
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.66
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
1833-1787 (3620)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
64-60 (124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.