Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (50%) · G2 at 56¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit45¢G255¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 50%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$74.38

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit45%

G256%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G25 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares14,130

Combined PnL+$19.93

Spirit5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,252

Combined PnL-$94.31

G2 — 50%Spirit — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpirit 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000G2 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Stickman22	G2avg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	— 4-3 (7)
RA randomrandomrandomCTR	Spiritavg 45¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$51.55	— 4-1 (5)
PA Partyarty91CTR	Spiritavg 45¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$44.44	0% 0-74 (74)
VI vibing123	G2avg 54.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$10.1	63% 1100-657 (1757)
BL BlessedKaladin	G2avg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$0	4% 2-47 (49)
BananaFarmer	G2avg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.83	— 5-5 (10)
JU JuiceFarm	G2avg 55¢	$770	$770	+$0	64% 21-12 (33)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Spiritavg 44¢	$486.66	$492.19	+$5.53	56% 384-300 (684)
MA manoamanoCTR	Spiritavg 45¢	$146.1	$144.48	-$1.62	— 10-8 (18)
l..messiCTR<$100	Spiritavg 45¢	$99.99	$97.77	-$2.22	4% 10-238 (248)

Stickman22

Invested

$2,475

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-3 (7)

randomrandomrandomCTR

Spirit

Invested

$2,319.59

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$51.55

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Partyarty91CTR

Spirit

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$44.44

Record

0-74 (74)

vibing123

Invested

$1,785.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$10.1

Record

63%

1100-657 (1757)

BlessedKaladin

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

2-47 (49)

BananaFarmer

Invested

$1,080.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.83

Record

—

5-5 (10)

JuiceFarm

Invested

$770

Value

$770

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

21-12 (33)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Spirit

Invested

$486.66

Value

$492.19

PnL

+$5.53

Record

56%

384-300 (684)

manoamanoCTR

Spirit

Invested

$146.1

Value

$144.48

PnL

-$1.62

Record

—

10-8 (18)

l..messiCTR<$100

Spirit

Invested

$99.99

Value

$97.77

PnL

-$2.22

Record

10-238 (248)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpirit 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000G2 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.