Consensus PnL $4.4K · win rate 70% (473–204, n=677) · was PM monthly #714 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.4K
Record
473W / 204L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 677 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#747
Source
PM monthly #714
Trades
2
Markets
799
Volume
$151.1K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under $308 · now 56¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Over)
- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Eagles $290 · now 54¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Imperial (BO5) - Gamers Club Masters PlayoffsImperial $97 · now 42¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Counter-Strike: naocopulas vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffsnaocopulas $97 · now 14¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Low Cortisol)
- Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-01?Yes $52 · now 89¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under $48 · now 48¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (39% of 20)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $10 · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
Specialties
379 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+46 pts
side won 99% of 159 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +47%
- College Football
+43 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +42%
- NFL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 94% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 99% of 87)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 99% of 162)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 98% of 113)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.