Missouri State Bears vs. Wyoming Cowboys (W)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Missouri State Bears (83%) · Missouri State Bears at 50¢ · $463 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Missouri State Bears
6
Missouri State Bears 83%
$463.05
$11.4
79¢ → 50¢
-37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMissouri State Bears at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Missouri State Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Wyoming Cowboysavg 22.2¢ | $95.82 | $215.5 | -$87.9 | 56% 39931-31546 (71477) |
 RN1 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79¢ | $75.3 | $125.5 | +$50.2 | 53% 72012-63509 (135521) |
38 38791873984189 | Missouri State Bearsavg 78.8¢ | $55.85 | $93.55 | +$37.7 | 48% 72152-77872 (150024) |
 dips.<$100 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79.8¢ | $11.4 | $19 | +$7.6 | 48% 17808-19532 (37340) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79.8¢ | $4.2 | $7 | +$2.8 | 53% 4268-3770 (8038) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79¢ | $1.5 | $2.5 | +$1 | 53% 28354-25627 (53981) |
Invested
$95.82
Value
$215.5
PnL
-$87.9
Record
56%
39931-31546 (71477)
RN1Invested
$75.3
Value
$125.5
PnL
+$50.2
Record
53%
72012-63509 (135521)
Invested
$55.85
Value
$93.55
PnL
+$37.7
Record
48%
72152-77872 (150024)
dips.<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$19
PnL
+$7.6
Record
48%
17808-19532 (37340)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$7
PnL
+$2.8
Record
53%
4268-3770 (8038)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
28354-25627 (53981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Wyoming Cowboys — $215.5
RN1
Missouri State Bears — $125.5
38791873984189
Missouri State Bears — $93.55
dips.
Missouri State Bears — $19
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Missouri State Bears — $7
Pan9X
Missouri State Bears — $2.5