Deel IPO before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.3K
$1.3K
65.5¢ → 99.4¢
+52% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 65.8¢ | $61.78 | $2.1K | +$1.2K | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
IM immanuelcan | Noavg 77¢ | $46.2 | $151.68 | +$39.09 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $5.5 | $49.68 | +$44.18 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $31.29 | $37.49 | +$6.2 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100 | No | $48.16 | $4.47 | +$14.07 | 45% 3592-4351 (7943) |
Invested
$61.78
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$46.2
Value
$151.68
PnL
+$39.09
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
2B9S<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$49.68
PnL
+$44.18
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$31.29
Value
$37.49
PnL
+$6.2
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Invested
$48.16
Value
$4.47
PnL
+$14.07
Record
45%
3592-4351 (7943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.