Consensus PnL $10K · win rate 44% (1168–1465, n=2633) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.2K
Record
1168W / 1465L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 2633 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2004
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
35,536
Markets
8,650
Volume
$464.4K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 14 on the consensus side (79%)- Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $5 · now 100¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Deel IPO before 2027?No $4 · now 99¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?No $4 · now 75¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $4 · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $4 · now 100¢ · in at 96¢against the consensus (Yes)
- SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No $3 · now 95¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (78% of 10)
- Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $3 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Yes $2 · now 63¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
Specialties
670 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 47¢- Soccer
+8 pts
side won 60% of 20 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +2%
- Golf
+4 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+3 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 66¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 41% of 135 at an average 46¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 2% of 330)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 37% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 62% of 34)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 96% of 271)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.