Consensus PnL $39K · win rate 55% (671–541, n=1212) · was PM monthly #955 · holds 51 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$38.5K
Record
671W / 541L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 1212 settled
Batting Avg
57.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1449
Source
PM monthly #955
Trades
2,724
Markets
1,840
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
51 in listed consensus markets · 34 of 51 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $3.5K · now 37¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (65% of 54)
- Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Yes $883 · now 100¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $643 · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $491 · now 89¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (57% of 28)
- Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes $390 · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $354 · now 6¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $348 · now 89¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (61% of 18)
- Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?No $336 · now 96¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
Specialties
820 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 55¢- MLB
+46 pts
side won 98% of 285 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +43%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 98% of 128 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +29%
- NHL
+36 pts
side won 90% of 29 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 29% of 109)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 90% of 201)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 93% of 287)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 96% of 223)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.