Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AC Horsens leading at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 50¢ · $25 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$25.47
-$8.41
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $23.33 | $16.5 | -$6.83 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $1.69 | $3.28 | +$1.59 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $4.81 | $3.22 | -$1.59 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $2.48 | -$1.57 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.33
Value
$16.5
PnL
-$6.83
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$1.59
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.81
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$1.59
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$1.57
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.