Dota 2: CyberHero vs PuckChamp (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (80%) · CyberHero at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
CyberHero
5
CyberHero 80%
$1.2K
-$6.32
86.1¢ → 87.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCyberHero at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | CyberHeroavg 87¢ | $600 | $593.1 | -$6.9 | 0% 0-78 (78) |
 VeryLucky888 | CyberHeroavg 84.6¢ | $396.75 | $403.23 | +$6.47 | 48% 215-230 (445) |
JU JuiceFarmCTR | PuckChampavg 13¢ | $130 | $125 | -$5 | — 4-1 (5) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | CyberHeroavg 87¢ | $65.24 | $64.49 | -$0.75 | 34% 164-316 (480) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | CyberHeroavg 86.5¢ | $25.95 | $25.8 | -$0.15 | 23% 142-486 (628) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$600
Value
$593.1
PnL
-$6.9
Record
0%
0-78 (78)
VeryLucky888Invested
$396.75
Value
$403.23
PnL
+$6.47
Record
48%
215-230 (445)
Invested
$130
Value
$125
PnL
-$5
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$65.24
Value
$64.49
PnL
-$0.75
Record
34%
164-316 (480)
Invested
$25.95
Value
$25.8
PnL
-$0.15
Record
23%
142-486 (628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.