Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$9.5K
$84.37
93.7¢ → 97.4¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4038h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 93.9¢ | $8.1K | $8.1K | +$44.14 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $710 | $780 | +$69.2 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.9¢ | $599.02 | $602.78 | +$3.14 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $47.91 | $47.98 | +$0.02 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $46 | $13.87 | -$32.13 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
tetraseInvested
$8,058.04
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$44.14
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$710
Value
$780
PnL
+$69.2
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$599.02
Value
$602.78
PnL
+$3.14
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$47.91
Value
$47.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$46
Value
$13.87
PnL
-$32.13
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.