Consensus PnL $146K · win rate 86% (1157–188, n=1345) · hand-picked wallet · holds 64 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$146.2K
Record
1157W / 188L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 1345 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#311
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
50,090
Markets
2,662
Volume
$56.2M
Top consensus positions
64 in listed consensus markets · 60 of 64 on the consensus side (94%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $92K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $36K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $27K · now 96¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No $21K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No $14K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- US takes Panama Canal before 2027?No $12K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No $12K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
Specialties
2,323 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 90¢- Tech
+2 pts
side won 99% of 80 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +1%
- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 93% of 89 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 96% of 26 at an average 98¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 2% of 183)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 40% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 52% of 33)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 99% of 2087)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.