Consensus PnL $973K · win rate 69% (520–236, n=756) · PM monthly #374 · holds 120 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$973.3K
Record
520W / 236L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 756 settled
Batting Avg
55.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#777
Source
PM monthly #374 + pinned
Trades
96,184
Markets
1,599
Volume
$45.2M
Top consensus positions
120 in listed consensus markets · 99 of 120 on the consensus side (83%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $64K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $59K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $44K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (57% of 29)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $44K · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (55% of 32)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $43K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $38K · now 95¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $38K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $33K · now 65¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
Specialties
892 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 69¢- Politics
+3 pts
side won 87% of 71 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 67% of 51 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+6 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 60¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 87% of 15 at an average 87¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 6% of 200)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 43% of 46)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 54% of 57)
- 70¢ and up: 66%(won 96% of 589)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.