Will CSD Independiente del Valle win on 2026-09-21?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $403 held · ended Sep 22
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$403.45
-$68.27
61.4¢ → 50.5¢
-18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 61.5¢ | $253.7 | $208.44 | -$45.26 | 50% 28598-28435 (57033) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $85.24 | $107.99 | -$37.25 | 58% 51709-37598 (89307) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $50.05 | $65.2 | +$15.15 | 50% 21334-21619 (42953) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $15.63 | $21.82 | -$0.91 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
Invested
$253.7
Value
$208.44
PnL
-$45.26
Record
50%
28598-28435 (57033)
Invested
$85.24
Value
$107.99
PnL
-$37.25
Record
58%
51709-37598 (89307)
Invested
$50.05
Value
$65.2
PnL
+$15.15
Record
50%
21334-21619 (42953)
Invested
$15.63
Value
$21.82
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.