Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 0.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$131.86
88.9¢ → 75.5¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 89¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$127.89 | — |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 10.5¢ | $101.29 | $91.33 | -$9.97 | — |
CI cigarettesARB<$100 | Overavg 73.4¢ | $42.3 | $72.11 | +$29.81 | — |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 73.4¢ | $37.86 | $38.44 | +$0.58 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 3.4¢ | $4.44 | $33.66 | +$29.22 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 18.1¢ | $26.3 | $35.6 | +$9.3 | — |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 86.2¢ | $25.49 | $22.18 | -$3.31 | — |
Invested
$1,444.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$127.89
Record
—
Invested
$101.29
Value
$91.33
PnL
-$9.97
Record
—
Invested
$42.3
Value
$72.11
PnL
+$29.81
Record
—
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.3
Value
$35.6
PnL
+$9.3
Record
—
Invested
$25.49
Value
$22.18
PnL
-$3.31
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.