Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 1.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 60¢ · $321 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$321.19
-$3.07
50.4¢ → 59.5¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 59¢ | $261.59 | $261.28 | -$0.3 | — |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 31.9¢ | $32.88 | $31.45 | -$1.43 | — |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $14.08 | $14.3 | +$0.22 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $10.37 | $10.55 | +$0.17 | — |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $5.34 | $3.62 | -$1.72 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.