Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 99¢ · $527 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$527.17
$6.99
98.6¢ → 99.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 98.6¢ | $325 | $315.25 | +$2.28 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 99¢ | $181.47 | $176.03 | +$0.47 | — |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $27.24 | $25.53 | -$0.15 | — |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 1.4¢ | $4.55 | $8.78 | +$4.23 | — |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.1¢ | $1.42 | $1.59 | +$0.16 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.