Manta FC leading at halftime?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 88¢ · $269 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$268.56
$1.14
87¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $93.04 | $80.48 | -$1.4 | 50% 66284-66816 (133100) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $65.77 | $67.68 | +$1.91 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $52.78 | $45.65 | -$0.38 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $44 | $43.25 | -$0.75 | 46% 2861-3344 (6205) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $145.52 | $19.64 | +$1.64 | 50% 33896-34147 (68043) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $23.75 | $11.85 | +$0.12 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
Invested
$93.04
Value
$80.48
PnL
-$1.4
Record
50%
66284-66816 (133100)
Invested
$65.77
Value
$67.68
PnL
+$1.91
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$52.78
Value
$45.65
PnL
-$0.38
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$44
Value
$43.25
PnL
-$0.75
Record
46%
2861-3344 (6205)
Invested
$145.52
Value
$19.64
PnL
+$1.64
Record
50%
33896-34147 (68043)
Invested
$23.75
Value
$11.85
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.