Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: Draw at halftime?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 36¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 9

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$156.97

Combined PnL

-$0.93

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$79.77

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$0.65

No3 traders

Total Value$77.2

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$0.28

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$100.91	$37.33	+$0.5	50% 33896-34147 (68043)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$93.04	$34.42	-$0.93	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$32.35	$32.57	+$0.22	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 64¢	$49.56	$31.22	-$0.5	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 63¢	$21.29	$13.41	+$0	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$21.64	$8.01	-$0.22	51% 28858-28213 (57071)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.91

Value

$37.33

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

33896-34147 (68043)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.04

Value

$34.42

PnL

-$0.93

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$0.22

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$49.56

Value

$31.22

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$21.29

Value

$13.41

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.64

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.