Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Boreham Wood FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 45¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$5.9K
-$183.12
56.2¢ → 44.5¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 43.5¢ | $2.8K | $3.2K | +$473.49 | 50% 21108-21355 (42463) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 56.5¢ | $6.0K | $2.5K | -$646.59 | 58% 46330-33448 (79778) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 49.6¢ | $171.8 | $77.31 | -$7.95 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $35.7 | $16.07 | -$1.07 | 50% 25743-25431 (51174) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $4.5 | -$1 | 54% 2564-2224 (4788) |
Invested
$2,769.5
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$473.49
Record
50%
21108-21355 (42463)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$5,999.38
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$646.59
Record
58%
46330-33448 (79778)
Invested
$171.8
Value
$77.31
PnL
-$7.95
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Invested
$35.7
Value
$16.07
PnL
-$1.07
Record
50%
25743-25431 (51174)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$1
Record
54%
2564-2224 (4788)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.