Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Bromley FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 49¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$16.55
50.8¢ → 48.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $452.09 | $460.08 | +$7.98 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $356.5 | $367.2 | +$10.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $95.59 | $92.88 | -$2.71 | |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $385.81 | $376.5 | -$9.31 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $196 | $188.67 | -$7.33 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $144 | $144 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $13.26 | $13.05 | -$0.2 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $10 | $10.3 | +$0.3 | 55% 1426-1175 (2601) |
Invested
$452.09
Value
$460.08
PnL
+$7.98
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Both legs:
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$385.81
Value
$376.5
PnL
-$9.31
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$196
Value
$188.67
PnL
-$7.33
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$144
Value
$144
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$13.26
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$0.2
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
1426-1175 (2601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.