Will FC Halifax Town win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$42.44

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 70.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,911

Combined PnL-$118.34

Yes3 traders

Total Value$904.96

Total Shares3,016

Combined PnL+$75.9

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$118.79	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 24.9¢	$746.46	$899.24	+$75.2	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
SE sentrio	Noavg 73¢	$187.36	$171.96	+$1.28	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 77¢	$20	$17.4	-$0.91	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$13.41	$4.22	+$0.6	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.15	$3.53	+$0.08	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.5	+$0.1	48% 1775-1911 (3686)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,296.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$118.79

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$746.46

Value

$899.24

PnL

+$75.2

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

sentrio

Invested

$187.36

Value

$171.96

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$0.91

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.41

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.