Consensus PnL $106K · win rate 75% (1616–531, n=2147) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$106.2K
Record
1616W / 531L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 2147 settled
Batting Avg
52.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#562
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
16,560
Markets
4,374
Volume
$8.2M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?No $1.7K · now 91¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (50% of 5)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes $201 · now 11¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,959 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 73¢- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 47% of 408 · avg entry 45¢
ROI −6%
- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 93% of 30 · avg entry 90¢
ROI 0%
- Esports
+4 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 90% of 82 at an average 91¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 6% of 396)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 41% of 106)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 64% of 113)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 98% of 1344)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.