Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$2.3K
$130.22
88.6¢ → 94.2¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
115h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 88.5¢ | $4.2K | $1.9K | +$112.37 | 64% 2397-1323 (3720) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $266.56 | $297.77 | +$31.21 | 38% 600-989 (1589) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 90.8¢ | $113.22 | $58.09 | +$1.43 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $34.37 | $16.47 | -$17.9 | 20% 387-1556 (1943) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $8.35 | $11.46 | +$3.1 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
Invested
$4,167.89
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$112.37
Record
64%
2397-1323 (3720)
Invested
$266.56
Value
$297.77
PnL
+$31.21
Record
38%
600-989 (1589)
Invested
$113.22
Value
$58.09
PnL
+$1.43
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Kamenshyk22CTR<$100Invested
$34.37
Value
$16.47
PnL
-$17.9
Record
20%
387-1556 (1943)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$11.46
PnL
+$3.1
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.