Consensus PnL $93K · win rate 43% (623–821, n=1444) · was PM monthly #622 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$93.0K
Record
623W / 821L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 1444 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2036
Source
PM monthly #622
Trades
5,494
Markets
1,710
Volume
$973.6K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 52¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $298 · now 6¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $216 · now 9¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?Yes $190 · now 27¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?Yes $88 · now 6¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $6 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
716 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 52¢- MLB
+32 pts
side won 94% of 71 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +32%
- MMA
+33 pts
side won 98% of 49 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +33%
- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 84% of 122 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 29% of 14 at an average 38¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 32% of 200)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 68% of 81)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 90% of 192)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 95% of 243)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.