Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 25¢ · $525 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$524.61
$107.01
23¢ → 24.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $112.48 | $189.58 | +$77.1 | 38% 600-989 (1589) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $164.38 | $115.88 | +$6.5 | 20% 387-1556 (1943) |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $416.56 | $95.49 | +$12.85 | 34% 210-407 (617) |
BI bipbipbopCTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $462.5 | $82.1 | +$9.19 | 64% 2397-1323 (3720) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 74.4¢ | $294.52 | $41.55 | +$1.36 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$112.48
Value
$189.58
PnL
+$77.1
Record
38%
600-989 (1589)
Kamenshyk22CTRInvested
$164.38
Value
$115.88
PnL
+$6.5
Record
20%
387-1556 (1943)
Invested
$416.56
Value
$95.49
PnL
+$12.85
Record
34%
210-407 (617)
Invested
$462.5
Value
$82.1
PnL
+$9.19
Record
64%
2397-1323 (3720)
Invested
$294.52
Value
$41.55
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.