Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 40¢ · $16 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$15.86
$0.25
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $4.71 | $4.72 | +$0.13 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3.75 | $3.72 | -$0.03 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $3.18 | $3.26 | +$0.08 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.98 | +$0.08 | 49% 3325-3528 (6853) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $1.56 | $1.53 | -$0.01 | 53% 2570-2251 (4821) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $0.64 | $0.65 | +$0.01 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
Invested
$4.71
Value
$4.72
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.72
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$3.26
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
3325-3528 (6853)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
2570-2251 (4821)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.