Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Everton FC vs. Coventry City FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$9.49
45.3¢ → 45.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 45.1¢ | $714.27 | $380.09 | +$7.66 | 58% 47061-33943 (81004) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 55¢ | $5.52 | $296.83 | +$2.71 | 51% 26324-24949 (51273) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $184 | $182 | -$2 | 56% 8102-6427 (14529) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $146.13 | $130.45 | +$3.02 | 48% 61881-66739 (128620) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $74.7 | $75.53 | +$0.83 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53¢ | $53.41 | $54.92 | +$2.19 | |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $78.79 | $79.66 | +$0.88 | 64% 10069-5627 (15696) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $19.72 | $19.94 | +$0.22 | 58% 21404-15543 (36947) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.5¢ | $8.64 | $8.73 | +$0.09 | 54% 10092-8477 (18569) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $2.88 | $2.8 | -$0.08 | 51% 1642-1552 (3194) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$714.27
Value
$380.09
PnL
+$7.66
Record
58%
47061-33943 (81004)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$296.83
PnL
+$2.71
Record
51%
26324-24949 (51273)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$184
Value
$182
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
8102-6427 (14529)
Invested
$146.13
Value
$130.45
PnL
+$3.02
Record
48%
61881-66739 (128620)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.79
Value
$79.66
PnL
+$0.88
Record
64%
10069-5627 (15696)
Invested
$19.72
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.22
Record
58%
21404-15543 (36947)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$8.73
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
10092-8477 (18569)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
1642-1552 (3194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.