Everton FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$3.1K
-$10.39
54.4¢ → 55.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 54.2¢ | $994.67 | $958.91 | -$2.76 | 58% 47026-33907 (80933) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 55¢ | $931.78 | $914.58 | -$17.2 | 51% 26303-24938 (51241) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Overavg 54¢ | $561.58 | $561.58 | +$0 | 69% 7246-3212 (10458) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 54¢ | $471.53 | $471.53 | +$4.37 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
SE sentrio | Overavg 54¢ | $201.14 | $206.73 | +$5.59 | 50% 26081-25734 (51815) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $34.14 | $33.76 | -$0.38 | 64% 10064-5621 (15685) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$994.67
Value
$958.91
PnL
-$2.76
Record
58%
47026-33907 (80933)
Invested
$931.78
Value
$914.58
PnL
-$17.2
Record
51%
26303-24938 (51241)
Invested
$561.58
Value
$561.58
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
7246-3212 (10458)
Invested
$471.53
Value
$471.53
PnL
+$4.37
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
Invested
$201.14
Value
$206.73
PnL
+$5.59
Record
50%
26081-25734 (51815)
Invested
$34.14
Value
$33.76
PnL
-$0.38
Record
64%
10064-5621 (15685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.