Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.2K
-$24.39
95¢ → 99.8¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$58.73 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $92.65 | $93.94 | +$1.28 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $12.58 | $12.07 | -$0.51 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $7.25 | $7.52 | -$0.35 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $87.61 | $4.07 | -$83.54 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
Invested
$2,007.92
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$58.73
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$92.65
Value
$93.94
PnL
+$1.28
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$12.07
PnL
-$0.51
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.52
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$87.61
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$83.54
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.