Liverpool FC leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$4.1K
$115.1
93¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 94¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$79.05 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 RN1 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$35.32 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $300 | $311.11 | +$11.11 | 25% 97-288 (385) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76¢ | $269.25 | $255.2 | -$14.05 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $95 | $96.5 | +$1.5 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $58.59 | $60.76 | +$2.17 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
Invested
$2,096.75
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$79.05
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
RN1Invested
$1,129.23
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$35.32
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$300
Value
$311.11
PnL
+$11.11
Record
25%
97-288 (385)
Invested
$269.25
Value
$255.2
PnL
-$14.05
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$95
Value
$96.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$58.59
Value
$60.76
PnL
+$2.17
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.