Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.8K
$57.9
92¢ → 95.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 92¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$55.76 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $129.16 | $80.75 | -$48.41 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $70 | +$56.11 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $55.68 | $56.43 | +$0.75 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $34.01 | $34.01 | -$0 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $25.61 | $19.3 | -$6.31 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
Invested
$1,481.03
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$55.76
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
RN1CTRInvested
$129.16
Value
$80.75
PnL
-$48.41
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$70
PnL
+$56.11
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55.68
Value
$56.43
PnL
+$0.75
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$34.01
Value
$34.01
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$25.61
Value
$19.3
PnL
-$6.31
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.