Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$1.1K
$32.04
42.3¢ → 44.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $622.91 | $650.84 | +$27.93 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 55¢ | $230.27 | $232.39 | +$2.11 | 39% 1335-2099 (3434) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 55¢ | $120.25 | $121.34 | +$1.09 | 46% 1301-1520 (2821) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 42.9¢ | $138.5 | $75.25 | +$2.71 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 57.6¢ | $61.5 | $59.54 | -$1.96 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $2.26 | $2.34 | +$0.08 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $1.26 | $1.34 | +$0.07 | 58% 19424-14279 (33703) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $0.98 | $0.99 | +$0.01 | 50% 36333-35815 (72148) |
Invested
$622.91
Value
$650.84
PnL
+$27.93
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$230.27
Value
$232.39
PnL
+$2.11
Record
39%
1335-2099 (3434)
Invested
$120.25
Value
$121.34
PnL
+$1.09
Record
46%
1301-1520 (2821)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$138.5
Value
$75.25
PnL
+$2.71
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$61.5
Value
$59.54
PnL
-$1.96
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.07
Record
58%
19424-14279 (33703)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
36333-35815 (72148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.