Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 2 Manchester City FC?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $677 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$676.85
$442.69
91¢ → 63¢
-31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $370 | +$356.11 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $45.62 | $179.37 | +$133.75 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91¢ | $136.58 | $94.88 | -$41.7 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $18.47 | $12.6 | -$5.87 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | $12.6 | -$5.4 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.6 | $7.4 | +$5.8 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$370
PnL
+$356.11
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
Invested
$45.62
Value
$179.37
PnL
+$133.75
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$136.58
Value
$94.88
PnL
-$41.7
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$18.47
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$5.87
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$18
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$5.4
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$5.8
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.