Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 1 Manchester City FC?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $721 held · ended Nov 7

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$720.8

Combined PnL

$257.5

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 63¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$509.21

Total Shares1,308

Combined PnL+$351.92

No3 traders

Total Value$211.6

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$94.42

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$13.89	$337.54	+$323.65	28% 1154-3035 (4189)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 90.7¢	$263.91	$183.25	-$80.67	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$81.23	$86.38	+$5.15	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$62.17	$85.28	+$23.12	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$23.09	$15.75	-$7.34	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19.01	$12.6	-$6.41	50% 59994-58808 (118802)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$337.54

PnL

+$323.65

Record

28%

1154-3035 (4189)

Flaznorp

Invested

$263.91

Value

$183.25

PnL

-$80.67

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.23

Value

$86.38

PnL

+$5.15

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.17

Value

$85.28

PnL

+$23.12

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$23.09

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$7.34

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.01

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$6.41

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.