Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 1 Manchester City FC?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 63¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
2 arb excluded
$9.4K
$13.02
90.9¢ → 63¢
-31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90.9¢ | $8.3K | $5.7K | $-2.5K | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $828.73 | $3.0K | +$2.2K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $370 | +$356.11 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
MA MadridTimeARB<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $191.56 | $161.8 | -$29.76 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.4¢ | $188.62 | $123.3 | -$65.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.95 | $38.51 | +$35.56 | |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $74.93 | $66.91 | -$8.01 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 98.9¢ | $73.38 | $46.77 | -$26.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.54 | $20.14 | +$18.6 | |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.14 | $35.15 | +$34.01 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $19.18 | $12.6 | -$6.58 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
Invested
$8,282.73
Value
$5.7K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$828.73
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$370
PnL
+$356.11
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
Invested
$191.56
Value
$161.8
PnL
-$29.76
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.93
Value
$66.91
PnL
-$8.01
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.14
Value
$35.15
PnL
+$34.01
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$6.58
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.