SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. PSV: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$18.91
69.2¢ → 76.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 22.9¢ | $313.02 | $320.59 | +$7.57 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 77¢ | $47.3 | $305.96 | -$2 | 56% 8260-6557 (14817) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $105.34 | $105.63 | +$0.29 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 77¢ | $70.84 | $70.38 | -$0.46 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23¢ | $34.5 | $35.25 | +$0.75 | |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 23.9¢ | $77.71 | $73.2 | -$4.51 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 78.9¢ | $58.77 | $38.01 | -$20.76 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $36.23 | $37.02 | +$0.79 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
Invested
$313.02
Value
$320.59
PnL
+$7.57
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
0xheavy888Invested
$47.3
Value
$305.96
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
8260-6557 (14817)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$105.34
Value
$105.63
PnL
+$0.29
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.71
Value
$73.2
PnL
-$4.51
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$58.77
Value
$38.01
PnL
-$20.76
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
Invested
$36.23
Value
$37.02
PnL
+$0.79
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.