Will SBV Excelsior vs. FC Twente end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $892 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$892
$101.93
87.8¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR ARocky33 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $599.28 | $681.06 | +$81.78 | 76% 4143-1304 (5447) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 88¢ | $168.9 | $191.83 | +$22.94 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.52 | $9.48 | +$1.96 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $6.96 | $8.8 | +$1.84 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $7.4 | $0.82 | -$6.58 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
Invested
$599.28
Value
$681.06
PnL
+$81.78
Record
76%
4143-1304 (5447)
Invested
$168.9
Value
$191.83
PnL
+$22.94
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$9.48
PnL
+$1.96
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$1.84
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$6.58
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.