Will CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra end in a draw?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $196 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$195.65
-$25.24
70.8¢ → 91.5¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 69.6¢ | $120.41 | $120.24 | -$0.18 | 50% 26430-26259 (52689) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $26.33 | $25.91 | -$0.42 | 50% 19818-20161 (39979) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $14.24 | $18.75 | +$1.65 | 54% 58149-50375 (108524) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $19.62 | $11.8 | -$7.82 | 51% 17616-16619 (34235) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $10.07 | $9.69 | -$0.37 | 44% 4039-5233 (9272) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $27.36 | $9.27 | -$18.1 | 58% 48519-34669 (83188) |
Invested
$120.41
Value
$120.24
PnL
-$0.18
Record
50%
26430-26259 (52689)
Invested
$26.33
Value
$25.91
PnL
-$0.42
Record
50%
19818-20161 (39979)
RN1<$100Invested
$14.24
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$1.65
Record
54%
58149-50375 (108524)
Invested
$19.62
Value
$11.8
PnL
-$7.82
Record
51%
17616-16619 (34235)
Invested
$10.07
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$0.37
Record
44%
4039-5233 (9272)
Invested
$27.36
Value
$9.27
PnL
-$18.1
Record
58%
48519-34669 (83188)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.