Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 90¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$26.7K
$1.3K
84.5¢ → 90.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 89.8¢ | $14.2K | $12.8K | $-1.3K | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $9.6K | $10.6K | +$939.41 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $3.9K | $3.3K | +$1.8K | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR | Noavg 24.2¢ | $237.38 | $93.12 | -$134.44 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$14,164.38
Value
$12.8K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$9,630.99
Value
$10.6K
PnL
+$939.41
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$3,877.14
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$237.38
Value
$93.12
PnL
-$134.44
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.