Consensus PnL $114K · win rate 67% (161–80, n=241) · was PM monthly #953 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$114.5K
Record
161W / 80L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 241 settled
Batting Avg
60.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#848
Source
PM monthly #953
Trades
5,552
Markets
1,770
Volume
$6.6M
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 25 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1?Yes $5.5K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $5.4K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?No $5.2K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 1?Yes $5.2K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?Yes $5.1K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 3?No $4.9K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 3?Yes $4.2K · now 84¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 1?Yes $3.4K · now 100¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
228 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 71¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 71% of 228 at an average 71¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 14% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 50% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 53% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 91% of 138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.