Consensus PnL -$61K · win rate 77% (391–116, n=507) · was PM monthly #294 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-61.2K
Record
391W / 116L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 507 settled
Batting Avg
44.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#513
Source
PM monthly #294
Trades
1,185
Markets
1,633
Volume
$16.2M
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 18 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 1?No $1.8K · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Ethereum Up or Down on November 1?Up $1.5K · now 97¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $1.2K · now 100¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?Up $748 · now 98¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1?No $314 · now 40¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?No $311 · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?Yes $129 · now 100¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?Yes $115 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
Specialties
464 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 89¢- Crypto
+10 pts
side won 100% of 464 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 86% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 100% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 100% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 100% of 423)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.