Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 1?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 99¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$31.5K
$3.1K
84.3¢ → 99.4¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 91.2¢ | $17.8K | $18.4K | +$551.55 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 69.9¢ | $5.9K | $8.4K | +$2.5K | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 80.2¢ | $3.2K | $3.4K | +$213.83 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $2.6K | $817.91 | +$4.3 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
SH Sharky6999 | Yesavg 86.5¢ | $861.1 | $491.8 | +$125.68 | 98% 6914-167 (7081) |
19 196874353278CTR | Noavg 5.4¢ | $160.93 | $19.57 | -$141.35 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR | Noavg 23.3¢ | $112.98 | $11.59 | -$104.14 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$17,834.22
Value
$18.4K
PnL
+$551.55
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$5,876.39
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$3,217.69
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$213.83
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$2,551.78
Value
$817.91
PnL
+$4.3
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
Invested
$861.1
Value
$491.8
PnL
+$125.68
Record
98%
6914-167 (7081)
Invested
$160.93
Value
$19.57
PnL
-$141.35
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$112.98
Value
$11.59
PnL
-$104.14
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.