EU dissolves before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$5.1K
$122.9
95.9¢ → 98.3¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$88.76 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 96.1¢ | $695.63 | $703.16 | +$7.53 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
KR Krass | Noavg 96¢ | $652.31 | $667.89 | +$15.24 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 Basquetipster | Noavg 96.1¢ | $457.44 | $467.91 | +$10.23 | 68% 1674-770 (2444) |
 tomatosauce2 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $111.12 | $112.26 | +$1.14 | 79% 998-258 (1256) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$3,014.02
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$88.76
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$695.63
Value
$703.16
PnL
+$7.53
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$652.31
Value
$667.89
PnL
+$15.24
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
BasquetipsterInvested
$457.44
Value
$467.91
PnL
+$10.23
Record
68%
1674-770 (2444)
tomatosauce2Invested
$111.12
Value
$112.26
PnL
+$1.14
Record
79%
998-258 (1256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.