Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 76% (390–122, n=512) · hand-picked wallet · holds 43 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.3K
Record
390W / 122L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 512 settled
Batting Avg
51.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#545
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
6,737
Markets
771
Volume
$328.4K
Top consensus positions
43 in listed consensus markets · 42 of 43 on the consensus side (98%)- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No $3.2K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $2.7K · now 96¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (88% of 25)
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No $2.3K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- NATO dissolves before 2027?No $1.9K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No $1.5K · now 88¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?No $1.4K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will Iran legalize gay marriage?No $1.4K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $1.2K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
Specialties
641 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 76¢- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 82% of 177 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +8%
- Culture
+8 pts
side won 86% of 28 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +3%
- Finance
+4 pts
side won 75% of 44 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 70% of 80 at an average 75¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 13% of 54)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 45% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 65% of 91)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 94% of 452)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.