Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $32K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$31.9K
$2.6K
89.5¢ → 97.6¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
4872h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 86.3¢ | $17.9K | $20.2K | +$2.3K | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 allenzzz | Noavg 97¢ | $6.2K | $6.2K | +$39.11 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$167.99 | 89% 538-64 (602) |
 Ahpo | Noavg 92.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$9.19 | 87% 1622-251 (1873) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 79.1¢ | $105.03 | $129.36 | +$24.33 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
Invested
$17,906.08
Value
$20.2K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
allenzzzInvested
$6,162.06
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$39.11
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
Invested
$3,533.65
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$167.99
Record
89%
538-64 (602)
AhpoInvested
$1,564.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$9.19
Record
87%
1622-251 (1873)
Invested
$105.03
Value
$129.36
PnL
+$24.33
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.