Consensus PnL $127K · win rate 94% (1634–96, n=1730) · was PM monthly #861 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$127.5K
Record
1634W / 96L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 1730 settled
Batting Avg
57.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#164
Source
PM monthly #861
Trades
4,324
Markets
2,529
Volume
$5.9M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 12 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $40K · now 10¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (94% of 35)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $9.7K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $7.8K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $7.7K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.9K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (78% of 18)
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No $3.1K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Israeli Knesset election annulled?No $2.5K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No $1.6K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,867 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 88¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 89% of 674 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+4 pts
side won 95% of 216 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 90% of 195 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 14% of 100)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 59% of 56)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 67% of 104)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 99% of 1607)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.