Consensus PnL $1.6M · win rate 66% (289–152, n=441) · PM monthly #140 · holds 51 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.6M
Record
289W / 152L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 441 settled
Batting Avg
44.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#890
Source
PM monthly #140
Trades
1,231
Markets
621
Volume
$18.5M
Top consensus positions
51 in listed consensus markets · 42 of 51 on the consensus side (82%)- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $624K · now 97¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No $172K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $127K · now 71¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (85% of 28)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes $92K · now 82¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $77K · now 80¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (89% of 27)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $71K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $57K · now 54¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $57K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
Specialties
423 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 61¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 77% of 94 · avg entry 73¢
ROI −7%
- Finance
+6 pts
side won 82% of 38 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 78% of 40 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 38% of 86 at an average 42¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 9% of 123)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 49% of 47)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 83% of 41)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 91% of 212)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.