Consensus PnL -$30K · win rate 89% (499–63, n=562) · PM monthly #993 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-29.8K
Record
499W / 63L
Win Rate
89.0%
of 562 settled
Batting Avg
30.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#253
Source
PM monthly #993
Trades
1,033
Markets
879
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 18 on the consensus side (83%)- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $55K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (74% of 34)
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?No $10K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.6K · now 88¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes $5.3K · now 90¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (52% of 23)
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?No $5.2K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.2K · now 93¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $4.6K · now 85¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No $3.8K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
832 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 92¢- Tech
+4 pts
side won 94% of 33 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 93% of 101 at an average 96¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 36% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 25% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 59% of 29)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 93% of 788)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.